Impact Forecasting

Impact Forecasting LLC is a catastrophe modeling center of excellence within Aon Benfield Analytics whose seismologists, meteorologists, hydrologists, engineers, mathematicians, GIS experts, finance, risk management and insurance professionals analyze the financial implications of natural and man-made catastrophes around the world.  Impact Forecasting’s experts develop software tools and models that help clients understand underlying risks from hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, wildfires and terrorist attacks on property, casualty and crop insurers and reinsurers.  Impact Forecasting is the only catastrophe modeling firm integrated into a reinsurance intermediary.

The team responds quickly to global events, providing vital data in order that insurers and reinsurers can continuously quantify their risks and exposures as an event unfolds. Approaches using scientific simulation modeling and various engineering-based methodologies are used, as is detailed financial reporting, to provide portfolio-level aggregate loss expectations for property, casualty and other lines of business. Loss information can be reported by country, region, ZIP/postal code, CRESTA or other divisional breakout.

Impact Forecasting’s Modeling Suite: ELEMENTS

ELEMENTS is Impact Forecasting’s proprietary software package developed for catastrophe modeling and exposure reporting. ELEMENTS easily accommodates customized modeling and reporting for specialty purposes. Its programming model and rigorous maintenance are key in terms of consistency and compatibility. Input exposure data can be analyzed at both an aggregated and individual level (using latitude and longitude coordinates when available). ELEMENTS enables the utilization of primary insurance policy conditions at all levels (i.e. coverage, location and policy) as well as the utilization of various reinsurance conditions. Uncertainty forms the core of the application and is defined on both hazard and damage/loss calculations. ELEMENTS works either as a desktop or as a cluster environment solution and ensures that the right solution is available for a wide range of users.

Unique Capabilities

Impact Forecasting’s models focus on major insured risk areas as well as territories and perils where commercial modeling firms have not yet ventured, or existing models are not credible. Modeling projects have included:

• Complete peril coverage of the United States, including models for earthquake, hurricane, tornado/hail/severe thunderstorm wind, storm surge and riverine flooding, wildfire, offshore oil platforms for the Gulf of Mexico and terrorism 
• U.S. wildfire loss modeling, which emphasizes duration and distance reporting for optimal catastrophe cover purchases
• The development of an extensive suite of models for Australia
• Earthquake models for Japan, Australia and New Zealand 
• Flood risk quantification in Central and Eastern Europe
• Extensive development of European earthquake models
• Support for various existing natural catastrophe insurance pools (e.g. New Zealand, Romania)
• Customized loss modeling for unusual or difficult structures that commercial models cannot process or analyze
• The validation of modeling results through client claims analysis and catastrophic event site visits by experienced Impact Forecasting engineers, seismologists and meteorologists

Real Time Support - Cat Reports

Aon Benfield clients have access to Impact Forecasting’s Cat Report service, which comprises three different types of reports:  the Weekly Cat Report, which summarizes the week's global natural catastrophes and the latest meteorological and seismological research; the Cat Alert, which is delivered whenever a large natural catastrophe occurs or is ready to occur, (i.e. landfalling hurricanes, tornado outbreaks, earthquakes, etc.); and the Monthly Cat Recap, which summarizes the natural catastrophes that have occurred across the world during the calendar month.