Aon Benfield: Impact Forecasting

Impact Forecasting
Aon Benfield Analytics

In a world with increasing risk exposures, coupled with more intense natural and man-made perils, insurers and reinsurers need more sophisticated tools to quantify and manage the risks facing their businesses. Impact Forecasting, Aon Benfield’s catastrophe model development centre of excellence, enables firms to analyse the financial implications of catastrophic events and achieve a greater understanding of their risks.

Breadth of Model Coverage
With over 100 probabilistic and scenario models spanning 10 perils and over 60 territories, we empower insurers by providing risk insights for the peak risk zones around the globe, as well as for the emerging markets. This allows insurers to place effective reinsurance programmes and manage capital based on more accurate model results. Impact Forecasting partners with academic and industry organisations around the world to incorporate the latest research into all of our catastrophe models. 

View the map and index of Impact Forecasting's global models:Impact Forecasting's global Models 

Customisable models
All Impact Forecasting models can be customised based on the client’s requirements, for example using an insurer’s loss data to generate more accurate results for a specific line of business, modify an existing event to explore the sensitivity of the losses for regulatory purposes or explore hazard uncertainty for a given peril. Recent examples include using our engineering expertise to apply claims data from churches and greenhouses to create bespoke damage functions and exploring uncertainty in the hazard component of our US hurricane model.

Transparent ELEMENTS loss calculation platform
Our models run in ELEMENTS, which gives insurers the ability to incorporate their own view of risk into model results. It delivers transparency so every step of the calculation process is clearly defined and can be easily explained to stakeholders, regulators and rating agencies while helping to quantify uncertainty in various model components. As a universal catastrophe modelling platform, ELEMENTS has the ability to run both Impact Forecasting models and third party models for any peril or territory. It also enables users to quantify and visualise the range of uncertainties to make business decisions based on their individual risk appetites.

Risk rating information to enhance primary underwriting
Impact Forecasting’s set of hazard and risk score products—based on its modelled data—enables more accurate underwriting and risk assessment for natural and man-made hazards. The data helps insurers and corporations understand the impact of catastrophe risk on individual locations and then in turn estimate how much premium to charge.

Catastrophe Analysis and Reporting
Impact Forecasting provides real-time information on catastrophic events through Cat Alerts, Weekly and Monthly Cat Recaps and the Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report. The Catastrophe Insight portal provides aggregated economic and insured loss data for global natural catastrophe events during the current year plus the previous decade. Users can compare losses by peril or region.

Aon Benfield is part of Aon UK Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FPA #12874