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Aon Energy Risk Engineering - Consequence Assessment
Understanding Process Hazards.
Almost every activity performed within an oil, gas, petrochemical, pharmaceutical, food processing, or general manufacturing facility can “go wrong,” leading to an unintended release of hazardous material or an uncontrolled release of energy. Consequence Assessment (CA) is a rigorous and methodical examination of the direct undesirable results following the loss of containment of material or energy, including any resulting fire or explosion. CA typically focuses on health effects, environmental impacts, loss of property, and business interruption. The professional staff at Aon Energy Risk Engineering has the knowledge, experience, and expertise to assist your organization in effectively and systematically assessing the consequences associated with all types of hazardous events.
Key Steps of Consequence Assessment
To fully understand and appreciate the consequences associated with a hazardous event (one that has already happened or one that has only been postulated) a number of elements must be examined and quantified:
1. Find the Rate of Release
Fluid flow techniques must be used to estimate the rate at which a hazardous material (liquid, vapor, or a two-phase mixture) might escape through a hole in a vessel, a break in a line, an opening of a relief valve or a rupture disk, a failure of a buried pipeline, or any number of other scenarios. If that release produces a pool of liquid, additional calculations may need to be performed to estimate the rate at which material evaporates from that pool or to find the quantity of material that might escape to the atmosphere over some period of time.
2. Describe the Rate of Downwind Dispersion
Aon Energy Risk Engineering uses a variety of sophisticated computer programs (including DNV’s PHAST™ and a number of proprietary computer programs and spreadsheets) to predict the movement and spreading of any material released into the atmosphere. Those dispersion model programs can be used to predict the concentration of the material that might be delivered to any point downwind of the source of the release.
3. Evaluate Human Response to Toxic Exposure
Dispersion modeling can be used to develop a concentration vs.time “history” for any downwind point of interest. If the material involved is toxic (or if the mixture released contains one or more toxic components), then Aon Energy Risk Engineering analysts can use sophisticated mathematical techniques to predict the human toxic response to that exposure. The results of that evaluation can be qualitative (e.g., “irritation, cough, watery eyes”) or quantitative (e.g., 55% probability of fatality).
4. Evaluate the Effects of any Subsequent Fires
If the material involved is flammable and the dispersing material comes into contact with an ignition source, then a fire might result. Aon Energy Risk Engineering analysts can predict the magnitude of the consequences associated with any subsequent flash fire, jet fire (torch fire), or pool fire. They can also estimate the likelihood of injuries and/or fatalities associated with exposure to those fires.
5. Investigate the Possiblity of a Vapor Cloud Explosion
Under certain conditions, the ignition of a flammable release can yield a vapor cloud explosion (VCE). If Aon Energy Risk Engineering analysts determine a VCE is a credible outcome, then state-of-the-art techniques are used to estimate the magnitude of that explosion (using the TNO Multi-Energy Method, not the obsolete TNT Equivalency Method). Simple or complex structural analysis can be performed to predict the degree of damage delivered to nearby buildings and/or the likelihood of injury/fatality for occupants of those buildings.
