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Quantitative Risk Assessment

Aon Energy Risk Engineering - Quantitative Risk Assessment

Take the Mystery Out of Risk Assessment


There is risk associated with every activity performed within an operation. Aon Energy Risk Engineering understands that the identification and management of existing risks can be very challenging, especially when threats are not easy to detect, the likelihood of occurrence is difficult to gauge, and/or the consequences are uncertain. Our professional staff has the knowledge, experience, and expertise to assist your organization in effectively and systematically identifying, understanding, and managing risk. From small projects to large-scale development of an entire risk management system, we offer a full range of risk assessment services.

Risk Assessment


Risk is the product of consequence and frequency. Risk assessment is an important management tool for making critical decisions and, in some cases, meeting regulatory requirements. Risk assessment is a four-part process:

1. Identify the Hazards and their Causes

Hazard Identification (HAZID) techniques (such as HAZOP, “What-If?”, FMEA, etc.) can be used to identify the hazards associated with a particular system, process, or procedure. That exercise serves to validate the concept and identify problem areas. An experienced HAZID team can even utilize the techniques to recommend additional actions, if required.

2. Determine the Consequences of the Hazards

Consequence Assessment is a rigorous and methodical examination of the direct undesirable results following the loss of containment of material or energy, including any subsequent fire or explosion. Aon Energy Risk Engineering uses a variety of sophisticated computer programs to assess the consequences of release events, including DNV’s PHAST™ and PHAST Risk™ as well as a number of proprietary computer programs and spreadsheets developed by our analysts.

3. Calculate the Frequency of their Occurrence

Frequency Assessment is used to estimate the frequency of a given event and the expected probability distribution of consequences resulting from that event. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is often used to identify the combinations of events (equipment failures, local conditions, external events, human errors, failure of interface systems, etc.) that could initiate the event of interest. Event tree analysis (ETA) is often used to predict the variety of possible outcomes, considering relevant factors such as detection, mitigation, and recovery actions.

4. Quantify the Risk Associated with the System, Process, or Procedure

The consequence and frequency information collected in the first three steps must be combined to quantify the risk. Quantified risk can be expressed in many formats, including maximum individual risk (MIR), average individual risk (AIR), individual risk per annum (IRPA), potential loss of life (PLL), and fatal accident rate (FAR). Other types of risk – including group risk, aggregate risk, and societal risk – are often presented in the form of F N graphs.

Benefits


Aon Energy Risk Engineering conducts quantitative risk assessments to allow their clients to manage their hazards in a cost-effective manner. A complete picture of the risk for an entire installation can be constructed. This picture can be studied and analyzed, allowing engineers to design, maintain, or upgrade their facility while achieving cost-effective hazard management. “What If?” calculations can be easily performed, enabling the risk impact of a design change or an installation modification to be assessed quickly and easily. A risk assessment may be most beneficial when it is used to compare different design options.

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