Key Findings - Presentation

An archive of Wednesday’s 9 a.m. ET Webcast launch, which includes insight from 2009 Political Risk Map authors Miles Johnstone and Roger Schwartz, is now available. Following are some key findings from the map.

 

Political stability determined next victim of credit crunch
Iceland and Greece serve as early warnings

2009 will see the political consequences of the global credit crunch start to have an impact, according to the 16th annual Political Risk Map produced by Aon.

Miles Johnstone, director of Aon’s Political Risk team: “This year’s map reflects how the impact of the credit crunch is shifting from being an economic problem to a political problem. When an economy is in downturn, the government has less resource available to deal with issues when they arise, potentially leading to political instability.”

“Volatility in global commodity prices in the 1970s and early 1980s contributed to political and economic instability in a number of countries,” according to Roger Schwartz, senior vice president of Aon Trade Credit. “Countries that recently benefited from very high commodity prices may suffer as they fall. The types of commodities we are talking about include oils, metals and minerals."


Country ratings highlights:

  • The past year has seen a number of High Risk countries continue to deteriorate to the point that the creation of a Very High Risk category was warranted.
  • A reflection of the general rise in the risk level globally, the past year has seen 18 countries downgraded to a higher risk level.
  • On the other hand, four High Risk countries saw an improvement in their status to Medium-High Risk. A total of 13 countries were upgraded to a lower risk level.