LONDON, 03 July 2007 – The scope and shape of terrorist threats around the world are shifting, according to 2007 Terrorism Threat Map, launched today by leading insurance broker and risk management consultant Aon. This means that the vulnerabilities in a company’s operations and revenue streams are also shifting, heightening the importance of fully understanding the changing nature of a business’ exposures.

The analysis for this year’s threat map, which provides an objective view of the terrorist threat in over 200 countries, indicates an apparent weakening of the Al Qaeda network and those terrorist groups operating under its umbrella.

Paul Bassett, executive director of Aon Crisis Management, explained: “The war on terror, especially in Afghanistan, appears to be disrupting the command and control element of Al Qaeda. Terror groups/cells at a country level are also more fragmented, resulting in lower levels of coordination.

“This has a downside, however, in that the many and varied plots are often unrelated. Just because one plot has been stopped in a certain country does not mean that other unrelated plots have been stopped or disrupted and vigilance is as critical as ever”, Paul added.

On the other side of the coin, as terror networks become more fragmented and less coordinated, intelligence and counter-terrorism authorities appear to becoming more coordinated and organised on a global basis.

The implications for business are significant. “Businesses need to realise that the level and shape of the risk is constantly evolving,” Paul warned. “As the risk profile changes, as parts of the world become more or less vulnerable to attack, the vulnerabilities in a business’ operations and revenue streams also change.

“As conflicts in the Middle East change and mature, for example, we are likely to see more movement of Jihadists between countries, perhaps returning from conflicts to their home nation, which again influences the shape and scope of terrorism risk.”

Notes to editors:

The Terrorism Threat level in the following countries has been raised for 2007:

23 countries saw their Terrorism Threat level lowered, including:

TERRORISM THREAT MAP 2007

Terrorism threat is defined as an assessment of the intent, capability and likelihood of terrorists staging attacks. All assessments for the Terrorism Threat Map 2007 draw upon open and privileged intelligence data. Using this data, a panel of analysts from Janusian Security Risk management has assigned threat levels by scoring each country according to the following threat indicators for 2007:

• known and active groups or networks operating in a given country
• their aims and stated objectives
• their track record of terrorist activity, including target selection
• their operational capabilities to stage attacks
• the likely erosion of terrorist capabilities through the current counter-terrorism regime in the given country

The map assesses the ‘threat’ but does not take account of mitigation, ie the effectiveness of local counter-terrorism or security force infrastructure.

The ratings apply to each country as a whole. There are geographical variations. For instance, in the US, the downtown Manhattan would be at much higher risk than rural parts of New York state. Cities at particular risk are highlighted on the map. 

Aon Corporation is a leading provider of risk management services, insurance and reinsurance brokerage, human capital and management consulting, and specialty insurance underwriting.  There are 43,000 employees working in Aon’s 500 offices in more than 120 countries.  Backed by broad resources, industry knowledge and technical expertise, Aon professionals help a wide range of clients develop effective risk management and workforce productivity solutions.

This press release contains certain statements related to future results, or states our intentions, beliefs and expectations or predictions for the future which are forward-looking statements as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from either historical or anticipated results depending on a variety of factors. Potential factors that could impact results include: general economic conditions in different countries in which we do business around the world, changes in global equity and fixed income markets that could affect the return on invested assets, fluctuations in exchange and interest rates that could influence revenue and expense, rating agency actions that could affect our ability to borrow funds, funding of our various pension plans, changes in the competitive environment, our ability to implement restructuring initiatives and other initiatives intended to yield cost savings, our ability to execute the stock repurchase program, our ability to obtain regulatory or legislative changes to permit continuous sales of our supplemental Medicare health product, changes in commercial property and casualty markets and commercial premium rates that could impact revenues, changes in revenues and earnings due to the elimination of contingent commissions, other uncertainties surrounding a new compensation model, the impact of investigations brought by state attorneys general, state insurance regulators, federal prosecutors, and federal regulators, the impact of class actions and individual lawsuits including client class actions, securities class actions, derivative actions, ERISA class actions, the impact of the analysis of practices relating to stock options, the cost of resolution of other contingent liabilities and loss contingencies, and the difference in ultimate paid claims in our underwriting companies from actuarial estimates.  Further information concerning the Company and its business, including factors that potentially could materially affect the Company’s financial results, is contained in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

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