Demographic Horizons Conference 2018
Robust prediction in volatile times
London – Tuesday 16 October 2018
We are delighted to announce our inaugural Demographic Horizons™ conference. Taking place in Aon’s London headquarters, this half-day conference will provide you with the opportunity to mix and meet with your fellow technical longevity experts as we discuss current developments and latest research on mortality and longevity.
Our Aon experts will present on their latest research, enabling you to gain new insights and techniques. We are also delighted to welcome our keynote speaker, Dr Johnathan Watkins, Research Director, PILAR Research Network, who will talk about the issues raised in the widely referenced research paper* he co-authored in 2017 on the association of spending constraints with mortality in England.
The full agenda can be seen below
Tim Gordon, Partner, Aon
|13.45 - 14.35
Key Note Address:
Associations between health and social care spending, and health outcomes in England
Dr. Johnathan Watkins, Research Director, PILAR Research Network
|14.35 - 15:10
Completing the demographic picture– contingent dependants
- Overview of the rapidly changing landscape of wider demographic assumption setting
- Latest techniques for analysing contingent dependant benefits – successes and pitfalls.
Andy Harding, Senior Consultant, Aon
|15:30 - 16:00
Using cause of death information and understand the driving factors
- Tracking and projecting the key causes of death.
- An international perspective on drivers and diseases
- Can we make disease-based models that are robust and predictive?
Matthew Fletcher, Senior Consultant, Aon
Factoring in member options
Emerging trends for member options in a post ‘pension freedoms’ world – what the data tell us, and how to factor this into our modelling.
Ollie Cowan, Senior Consultant, Aon
|16:00 - 16:30
International longevity perspectives
- International mortality update, focusing on Canada and Europe.
- Can the international experience help inform UK projections
Steve Bale Principal Consultant, Aon & Tom Ault, Partner, Aon (Canada)
Base mortality models – what works and what doesn’t
- Testing what matters using cross validation on likely use cases.
- Relative predictive performance of common rating factors.
- Using neighbouring data to enhance predictiveness.
Miles Blackford Principal Consultant, Aon
|16:30 - 17:00
Realistic mortality projections
- Features of realistic projection models.
- Mixing features of deterministic and stochastic models.
- Carrying out ARIMA fitting (or ‘smoothing’) in one step.
- Age-period-cohort effect identification.
- Approaches to fitting penalties.
- Advantages of state space models.
- Longevity VaR and fat tails.
Kishore Ananda, Senior Consultant, Aon & Jujhar Benning, Actuarial Analyst, Aon
|17:00 - 17:10
Summary and key learnings
Tim Gordon, Partner, Aon
* Watkins J, Wulaningsih W, Da Zhou C, et al. Effects of health and social care spending constraints on mortality in England: a time trend analysis. BMJ Open 2017;7:e017722. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-017722
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