United Kingdom

Demographic Horizons Conference 2018

Robust prediction in volatile times

London – Tuesday 16 October 2018

We are delighted to announce our inaugural Demographic Horizons™ conference. Taking place in Aon’s London headquarters, this half-day conference will provide you with the opportunity to mix and meet with your fellow technical longevity experts as we discuss current developments and latest research on mortality and longevity.

Our Aon experts will present on their latest research, enabling you to gain new insights and techniques. We are also delighted to welcome our keynote speaker, Dr Johnathan Watkins, Research Director, PILAR Research Network, who will talk about the issues raised in the widely referenced research paper* he co-authored in 2017 on the association of spending constraints with mortality in England.

The full agenda can be seen below


12.45 - 13.30

Registration and buffet lunch

13.30 -13:45

Welcome Address

Tim Gordon, Partner, Aon

13.45 - 14.35

Key Note Address:

Associations between health and social care spending, and health outcomes in England

Dr. Johnathan Watkins, Research Director, PILAR Research Network

14.35 - 15:10

Completing the demographic picture– contingent dependants

  • Overview of the rapidly changing landscape of wider demographic assumption setting
  • Latest techniques for analysing contingent dependant benefits – successes and pitfalls.

Andy Harding, Senior Consultant, Aon

15:10 - 15:30

Refreshments and networking break


Breakout Sessions

15:30 - 16:00

Using cause of death information and understand the driving factors

  • Tracking and projecting the key causes of death.
  • An international perspective on drivers and diseases
  • Can we make disease-based models that are robust and predictive?

Matthew Fletcher, Senior Consultant, Aon

Factoring in member options

Emerging trends for member options in a post ‘pension freedoms’ world – what the data tell us, and how to factor this into our modelling.

Ollie Cowan, Senior Consultant, Aon

16:00 - 16:30

International longevity perspectives

  • International mortality update, focusing on Canada and Europe.
  • Can the international experience help inform UK projections

Steve Bale Principal Consultant, Aon & Tom Ault, Partner, Aon (Canada)

Base mortality models – what works and what doesn’t

  • Testing what matters using cross validation on likely use cases.
  • Relative predictive performance of common rating factors.
  • Using neighbouring data to enhance predictiveness.

Miles Blackford Principal Consultant, Aon

16:30 - 17:00

Realistic mortality projections

  • Features of realistic projection models.
  • Mixing features of deterministic and stochastic models.
  • Carrying out ARIMA fitting (or ‘smoothing’) in one step.
  • Age-period-cohort effect identification.
  • Approaches to fitting penalties.
  • Advantages of state space models.
  • Longevity VaR and fat tails.

Kishore Ananda, Senior Consultant, Aon & Jujhar Benning, Actuarial Analyst, Aon

17:00 - 17:10

Summary and key learnings

Tim Gordon, Partner, Aon

17.10 - 18.00

Drinks Reception and networking

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* Watkins J, Wulaningsih W, Da Zhou C, et al. Effects of health and social care spending constraints on mortality in England: a time trend analysis. BMJ Open 2017;7:e017722. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-017722


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Where and When?

Tuesday 16 October 2018

The Aon Centre
122 Leadenhall Street

This event is scheduled to start at 12.45 with registration and buffet lunch and will finish at 17:10 and will be followed by a drinks reception


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