Demographic Horizons™

Aon’s Demographic Horizons toolkit provides pension schemes, insurers and reinsurers with a comprehensive framework to enable modelling of all aspects of mortality and dependants proportion and age difference, in the UK and other selected markets internationally.

Demographic Horizons’ robust modelling combined with our understanding of client needs allows us to provide unrivalled levels of advice to pension schemes, insurers and reinsurers in these areas:

• Base mortality postcode modelling
• Granular experience analysis
• Dependants (spouses) modelling incorporating and combining all common data sources (postcode, write-outs, tracing and experience)
• Mortality improvements
• Longevity risk

Our emphasis is on robust and tempered prediction, making the best possible use of all available data and always including soundly-derived confidence intervals for the best estimates we produce.

This enables our clients to determine their best estimate assumptions, assess their demographic risk and refine their internal metrics with confidence.

Our analytics have been applied in multiple locales – in particular, we have fully operational and locally-calibrated postcode mortality models for the Netherlands and for Canada.

Our web-based Studio provides our clients with direct and immediate access to our base mortality and dependants models, which they can use perform and tailor their own analyses.

The Demographic Horizons team has:

• Provided best-estimate longevity and associated demographic advice to reinsurers in relation to pension plan-related transactions for over £125Bn of liability, including the largest transactions on either side of the Atlantic.
• Advised on best estimate longevity and market pricing for EU-based insurance company transactions totalling €17Bn of defined benefit pensions back book liability in the period 2020 to 2022.
• Assisted a major institution with a contested mortality review basis for a longevity swap for £2Bn that had been in place for over a decade.

If you would like more information, please click on the links to the right of this page, or contact the Demographic Horizons team.