United Kingdom

Demographic Horizons™

Aon’s Demographic Horizons toolkit provides pension schemes, insurers and reinsurers with a comprehensive framework to enable modelling of all aspects of mortality and other demographics in the UK and other selected markets internationally. The schematic below sets out key information about the Demographic Horizons solutions.

Demographic Horizons’ robust modelling combined with our understanding of client needs allows us to provide unrivalled levels of advice to pension schemes, insurers and reinsurers.

Our emphasis is on robust and tempered prediction, making the best possible use of all available data. We also provide soundly-derived confidence intervals around all the best estimates we produce.

This enables our clients to determine best estimate assumptions, assess demographic risk and refine internal metrics with confidence.

Our analysis framework has been used in multiple locales; in particular, we have bespoke postcode models covering both the Netherlands and Canada.

Our web-based Studio affords direct and immediate access to the base mortality and dependants models; this approach allows clients to calibrate their own models using a range of rating factors. Clients can also validate the robustness of their model on a per pension plan basis.

The Demographic Horizons team has:

  • Provided longevity and associated demographic advice on over 50% of UK pension scheme longevity swap and bulk annuity transactions to date, including 50% of the transactions in 2019
  • Championed the use of mortality projection tools developed in the crucible of the UK longevity market in the rest of Europe, leading to their adoption by multi-nationals
  • Advised on the very largest transactions outside the UK, including advice to a European insurer on reinsuring over €10Bn of longevity liabilities in 2019

If you would like more information, please click on the links to the right of this page, or contact the Demographic Horizons team.