Risk Factors and Conditions Driving Global Medical Costs

Risk Factors and Conditions Driving Global Medical Costs
November 17, 2025 6 mins

Risk Factors and Conditions Driving Global Medical Costs

Risk Factors and Conditions Driving Global Medical Costs

The global medical trend rate is projected to ease to 9% in 2027, but costs are still rising more than three times faster than inflation. Understanding the risks and conditions driving increases can help employers prepare.

Key Takeaways
  1. Cardiovascular disease, cancer and hypertension remain the three leading conditions contributing to rising medical costs globally.
  2. Hypertension is the leading risk factor, while physical inactivity and obesity round out the top three. Obesity has risen from fifth place two years ago to third for 2027.
  3. Understanding a workforce’s specific conditions and risk factors can help employers target prevention, wellbeing and cost management strategies more effectively.

Amid continued global economic uncertainty and cooling inflation in much of the world, the projected 2027 global medical trend rate has eased slightly to 9%, according to Aon’s 2027 Global Medical Trend Rates Report. While this is the second consecutive year of decreasing trend, moderation doesn’t mean costs are going down. Healthcare expenses continue to rise much faster than inflation. Chronic conditions, aging populations and demand for advanced treatments remain drivers of cost. 

“While the trend rate may be easing, costs are still rising at three times the rate of general inflation,” says Kathryn Davis, Global Benefits Data & Analytics Leader. “The rate of increase has slowed, but economic instability, ongoing global uncertainty and worsening strain on public medical systems mean higher costs are likely still inevitable for the foreseeable future.”

The health risks and medical conditions driving the overall trend rate have varied little over the last few years, though there are some differences both over time and regionally. The top conditions are commonly lifestyle-related, meaning that employee behaviors can influence both health outcomes and healthcare spend. The risks and medical conditions that drive claims are key to understanding where and why the trend rate has risen and what can be done to help mitigate future increases. 

Risk Factors Driving the Medical Trend Rate

Risk Factors and Conditions Driving the Global Medical Trend Rate Diagram 1

The top risk factors that drive claims can work alone or in combination with other risk factors. For example, poor stress management, bad nutrition and lack of physical activity are all linked to hypertension, which is both a leading condition and an underlying risk factor driving claims.

Top Risk Factors Globally

  • 01
    Hypertension

    Hypertension has led the global risk factors since 2019 and tops every region except North America. Despite easy, widespread screening for early detection, it remains a major driver of claims due to its prevalence, long-term treatment needs and increased risk of other conditions.

  • 02
    Physical Inactivity

    Physical inactivity is second again, linked to musculoskeletal issues, obesity and cardiovascular problems. Until this year, it ranked as the top risk factor in the U.S. for nearly a decade. It remains the number one risk in Canada and is in the top three in the U.S, APAC and the Middle East/Africa.

  • 03
    Obesity

    Obesity entered the top three risk factors for the first time this year. Linked to physical inactivity, it ranks among the top five in every region except APAC. As use of GLP-1s and other weight management therapies grows, obesity will be a risk to watch in the years ahead.

Lifestyle factors

Spotlight

Lifestyle Factors and Prescription Medications

Many top risk factors like obesity and poor nutrition share a common element. They are all related to individual lifestyle. Others like hypertension may be driven by lifestyle, genetic factors or both.

As employers look to manage these risks, medications are playing a growing role, particularly GLP-1s. However, they are also contributing to medical costs. GLP-1s are available in nearly 70% of the countries surveyed and covered by employer-sponsored plans in about half of those markets. Some regions estimate that these medications account for between 1% and 10% of medical trend. While such therapies may reduce other costs by improving health outcomes, evidence of this has yet to emerge clearly in the data.

Conditions Driving the Medical Trend Rate Stay Consistent

Risk Factors and Conditions Driving the Global Medical Trend Rate Diagram 2

The top three conditions driving continued increases in medical costs are the same as reported in 2026. They are generally associated with lifestyle factors and have remained largely consistent since 2021. As with risk factors, these conditions represent only some of the drivers of medical trend rates and vary across regions. 

Top Medical Conditions Globally

  • 01
    Cardiovascular Issues

    Heart attacks and strokes are among the top three conditions in every region, driven by high cost and emergency care. Key risk factors include high blood pressure, stress, obesity, poor nutrition and inactivity. Prevention like GLP-1s may reduce future risk, while also increasing near-term costs.

  • 02
    Cancer

    Cancer and tumor growth remain major claims drivers, with many causes difficult to prevent. Early detection and timely treatment are critical to avoid poor prognoses and higher costs. Ongoing access challenges and delayed care due to the pandemic may further amplify costs.

  • 03
    Hypertension

    Hypertension remains both a risk factor and condition requiring treatment. While related medications are relatively inexpensive compared to cancer treatments and emergency cardiovascular care, widespread demand drives high overall cost.

Taking a Holistic, Data-Led Approach

The data from Aon’s 2027 Global Medical Trend Rates Report provides a snapshot of a varied and evolving global healthcare landscape. Medical costs differ significantly by country, healthcare and workforce demographics, making each employer’s experience unique. Given this complexity, employers should adopt a holistic, data-driven strategy to control costs and support behavioral change. 

Companies have a large amount of data at their disposal. It is when they strategically use that data to identify and understand what is driving their claim costs that meaningful progress is made.

“Global trends provide important context, but employers need to understand what’s behind the costs within their own populations,” says Mike Pedel, Head of Global Benefits. “The real opportunity lies in turning that data into targeted action.”

Learn how Aon can help your organization understand cost drivers and how to mitigate them. Contact us today. 

Aon's Thought Leaders

Kathryn Davis
Global Benefits Data & Analytics Leader

Mike Pedel
Head of Global Benefits

General Disclaimer

This document is not intended to address any specific situation or to provide legal, regulatory, financial, or other advice. While care has been taken in the production of this document, Aon does not warrant, represent or guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness or fitness for any purpose of the document or any part of it and can accept no liability for any loss incurred in any way by any person who may rely on it. Any recipient shall be responsible for the use to which it puts this document. This document has been compiled using information available to us up to its date of publication and is subject to any qualifications made in the document.

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