2026 Through the Eyes of Forward-Thinking Employers

2026 Through the Eyes of Forward-Thinking Employers
March 11, 2026 6 mins

2026 Through the Eyes of Forward-Thinking Employers

2026 Through the Eyes of Forward-Thinking Employers

Six Predictions Shaping the Future of Health, Benefits & Workforce Strategy

The future of health, benefits, and workforce strategy is being shaped by the perspectives of forward-thinking employers, your peers who are exploring new ideas and considering what’s next. The six predictions in this briefing are drawn from responses to our Crystal Ball Survey, which appeared in last quarter’s Clients Included Newsletter.

These insights reflect a spirit of optimism and readiness. Rather than waiting for certainty or being held back by volatility, these employers are imagining what the future could look like and sharing their views on the opportunities ahead. The predictions that follow are signals of where leading minds believe the landscape is headed.

Each prediction is paired with practical, actionable steps.  These are ideas you can use to spark conversation, drive strategy, and build resilience within your organization. Our hope is that these insights inspire you to see the future as something to co-create, together.

The Six 2026 Predictions

  • 1. Cost Savings Expectations Will Miss the Mark—and Access Will Be Impacted

    “Savings and cost expectations will be inaccurate, and unless major federal changes occur, we will see material impacts to access.”
    — HR Leader, EV/Automotive Industry

    Employers are taking a clear-eyed approach to the future, acknowledging that optimistic projections won’t offset structural pressures and that access challenges may intensify. By recognizing risks early, organizations can plan rather than react, invest where access matters most, and communicate honestly with employees. Preparedness creates resilience, even when conditions are difficult.

    What Prepared Employers Are Doing Next

    • Stress-testing cost and access assumptions
    • Identifying critical access points for their populations
    • Exploring alternative care pathways and partnerships
    • Engaging employees transparently about tradeoffs and realities
  • 2. Predictive Risk Modeling Will Move from Insight to Action

    “Predictive risk modeling will move, from understanding risk to actively intervening, in ways that are supportive, timely, and personalized.”
    — Luke Prettol, AT&T

    Employers are shifting from passive analytics to operational decision-making, thanks to improved data integration and embedded AI tools. The opportunity lies in acting on early signals to support rising-risk populations before crises occur, moving from reactive cost control to proactive care support. When predictive insights trigger thoughtful interventions, outcomes improve, surprises decrease, and members receive help in ways that feel human, not automated.

    What Prepared Employers Are Doing Next

    • Identifying where earlier signals would materially change outcomes
    • Aligning analytics, care management, and vendors around shared triggers
    • Establishing governance for responsible AI use
    • Piloting interventions that feel human, not automated
  • 3. Outpatient Surgical and Infusion Spend Will Improve Meaningfully

    “There will be a significant improvement in outpatient surgical and infusion spend and trend.”
    — Technology HR Leader

    Employers are seizing the chance to address cost inflation in outpatient surgery and infusion by leveraging advances in care delivery, improved visibility into spending, and stronger vendor partnerships. This moment is defined by the ability to align care settings, quality, and cost, empowering employees with more convenient, high-quality options while giving employers greater control over a historically volatile category. Trust grows when decisions are transparent and clinically grounded, and organizations can finally influence areas once considered too complex.

    What Prepared Employers Are Doing Next  

    • Prioritizing outpatient surgery and infusion as strategic focus areas
    • Evaluating site-of-care programs with real enforcement mechanisms
    • Aligning clinical oversight with financial incentives
    • Moving from “available alternatives” to guided, supported decisions
     
  • 4. Two-Tier Premium Incentives Will Drive Engagement and Cost Control

    “A new two-tier premium incentive model will significantly increase engagement and contain costs.”
    — Utilities HR Leader

    With engagement fatigue weakening traditional wellness strategies, more employers are turning to premium differentials as a meaningful lever for shaping behavior and driving cost control. Advances in plan design and a desire for transparency have made tiered premiums a powerful tool—one that empowers employees with clear tradeoffs, reinforces high-value choices, and builds trust through simplicity. This shift is about making value visible and connecting decisions to real financial impact.

    What Prepared Employers Are Doing Next  

    • Testing tiered premiums tied to plan design, navigation, or engagement
    • Stress-testing equity and accessibility implications
    • Clearly communicating the “why,” not just the mechanics
    • Pairing incentives with support, education, and choice architecture
  • 5. Employers Will Be Willing to Force Harder Decisions

    “We will finally be willing to force particular actions—whether around site of care, networks, or GLP-1 management—where we were hesitant before.”
    — Corey Thomas, Gordon Food Service

    Employers are reaching a turning point, recognizing that optional programs and soft nudges are no longer enough to manage rising complexity and cost. The willingness to move from influence to intentional direction is driven by the need for clear guardrails, consistent application, and empathetic communication. By guiding decisions around high-cost therapies and sites of care, organizations act as stewards of the system, reducing frustration and preparing for the cultural implications of firmer stances.

    What Prepared Employers Are Doing Next  

    • Defining where choice is essential —and where direction is appropriate
    • Establishing firm policies around high-cost therapies and sites of care
    • Ensuring decisions are communicated with empathy and clarity
    • Preparing leadership for the cultural implications of firmer stances
  • 6. Traditional Plan Design Will Give Way to More Tailored Models

    “We will step away from traditional plan design and adopt more tailored designs to meet the diverse needs of our population.”
    — HR Leader, Healthcare Industry

    As workforce diversity widens, employers see that uniform plans no longer reflect the realities of their populations. Advances in technology and a desire for equity are driving a shift toward intentional differentiation, allowing organizations to better align benefits with employee needs, improve relevance, and use resources more efficiently. Customization strengthens both experience and sustainability, balancing choice with simplicity.

    What Prepared Employers Are Doing Next  

    • Segmenting populations by need, not just demographics
    • Piloting alternative designs for specific cohorts
    • Balancing choice with simplicity
    • Using data to continuously refine rather than lock designs in place

Turning Insights into Action

The six predictions shared in this briefing reflect the wisdom and forward-looking perspectives of your peer employers who are imagining what’s possible for health, benefits, and workforce strategy. 

As you consider these insights, remember that the future is not something to wait for, it is something innovative employers like you must shape. By taking practical steps, sparking conversation, and engaging your teams, you can turn these predictions into opportunities for confidence and clarity to make better decisions and build better benefits.

Empower your organization to move from ideas to impact. Use these predictions as a catalyst to challenge assumptions, pilot new approaches, and build resilience for whatever comes next. Together, we can co-create a future that is more responsive, equitable, and hopeful for all.

 

General Disclaimer

This document is not intended to address any specific situation or to provide legal, regulatory, financial, or other advice. While care has been taken in the production of this document, Aon does not warrant, represent or guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness or fitness for any purpose of the document or any part of it and can accept no liability for any loss incurred in any way by any person who may rely on it. Any recipient shall be responsible for the use to which it puts this document. This document has been compiled using information available to us up to its date of publication and is subject to any qualifications made in the document.

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The contents herein may not be reproduced, reused, reprinted or redistributed without the expressed written consent of Aon, unless otherwise authorized by Aon. To use information contained herein, please write to our team.

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