Catastrophe Model Insight

Catastrophe Model Insight

Learn how your organization can benefit from Impact Forecasting. 

What is Impact Forecasting?

In an increasingly risky world, insurers and reinsurers need more sophisticated tools to quantify and manage the risks facing their businesses. Aon’s catastrophe model developers, Impact Forecasting, enable firms to analyze the financial impacts of catastrophic events to develop effective reinsurance, underwriting and exposure management.

Breadth of Model Coverage

With over 135 probabilistic and scenario models spanning 12 perils and almost 90 territories, we empower users by providing risk insights for the peak risk zones around the globe and emerging markets.

Impact Forecasting partners with academic and industry organizations worldwide to incorporate the latest research into all our catastrophe models.

Solutions for Reinsurance, Underwriting and Exposure Management

  • Automated Event Response

    Using weather forecast and station data, Impact Forecasting’s Automated Event Response combines its expertise in natural disaster modeling with a personalized approach to loss estimation.

  • Customizable Models

    With over 125 probabilistic and scenario models spanning 12 perils and almost 80 territories, we empower users by providing risk insights for the peak risk zones around the globe and emerging markets. Impact Forecasting partners with academic and industry organizations worldwide to incorporate the latest research into all our catastrophe models.

  • Hazard and Risk Data

    To enable more accurate underwriting and risk assessment for natural and man-made hazards, Impact Forecasting developed a set of hazard and risk score products based on our modeled data. This helps insurers and corporations understand the impact of catastrophe risk on individual locations within a portfolio.

    • Determine hazard intensities, average annual loss, or risk scores for different perils on a location-by-location basis.
    • Depending on the location, estimate how much premium to charge for a specific peril cover.
    • Risk data is also available for different occupancies or individual building types.

    Data is available for eight different perils in nearly 40 countries, based on thousands of stochastically-generated events. This provides a comprehensive insight into catastrophe risk for that region through the following products:

    • Hazard Scores: provides the hazard intensity per return period for each postal/admin zone (e.g., 55 m/s wind gust speed for a 1-in-200-year return period for a particular location).
    • Risk Scores: provides modeled loss ratios per return period for each postal/admin zone (e.g., 0.78% loss ratio for a 1-in-200-year return period).
  • Impact Forecasting Revealed Events

    Our annual webinar series explores the latest models, technology and analytics to help insurers develop their view of catastrophe risk.

  • Proactive and Tailored Support

    Proactive and tailored support with a dedicated account manager supported by a client support and technical solutions team

    • Located in Chicago, London, Prague, Singapore and Bangalore
    • 24/7 access to user support websites – containing model and software documentation and the latest event response information
    • Access to model developers, hazard specialists and engineers to actively assist in understanding model development assumptions and outputs
    • A suite of on-site or remote training materials alongside our annual Impact Forecasting Revealed seminars
  • Transparent Loss Modeling Platform

    As the insurance industry navigates new forms of volatility, transparent and customizable models are essential. Impact Forecasting has enhanced its ELEMENTS catastrophe modeling platform to fully benefit from the Oasis Loss Modeling Framework – helping companies create their own custom view of risk through an open modeling platform.

    Embracing Today’s Catastrophe Modeling Needs
    • Oasis financial loss calculation engine is now available, in addition to the established Impact Forecasting engine, allowing users to leverage models from a range of vendors and research organizations.
    • Oasis model definition format is supported natively by the Impact Forecasting financial engine to ensure greater model compatibility and flexible choice.
    • Full set of APIs (application programming interface) to integrate ELEMENTS into existing or new catastrophe modeling workflows.
    • Easy to install client-server applications and flexible deployment options on-premise and cloud to enable scalable performance and improved speed (based on the number of cores).
    Customization and Transparency
    • Transparency: Access and insight into hazard and vulnerability model components and how they are connected to streamline model evaluation, customization projects and informing your own view of risk faster.
    • Customize and adjust: Leverage in-house model development expertise and data to modify key model parameters, adjust and add events, customize vulnerability functions or implement full model components to derive more appropriate model results.
    • Uncertainty definition and quantification: Communicate with re/insurers for more appropriate rates or with regulators and rating agencies for an informed and smoother model approval process. ELEMENTS sets the framework to define, quantify and visualize uncertainty within the catastrophe model.
    Key Enhancements in ELEMENTS 16
    • Support for Open Exposure Data (OED) modifiers scheme for Impact Forecasting models (in addition to the existing schemes) allows for importing exposure data defined by OED classes and enables greater standardization.
    • Enhancements of the financial engine and reporting – users can output sample-level EP curves (default) for state, county, and user-defined breakouts and mean-level EP curves. Sample-based AEP curves are also now available.
    • Input custom flood defenses, e.g., temporary defenses around a large commercial or industrial risk, for more accurate modeling and quantification of flood risk
    • Oasis Loss Modeling Framework integration for running any Oasis-based model, such as JBA’s UK flood model, directly from the ELEMENTS interface importing OED format exposure
    • The addition of API functionality for compiling model results from two (or more) analyses allows easier integration with 3rd party products such as re/insurers cat modeling and pricing systems.

Aon UK Limited which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FPA #12879

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