Aviation’s Future Flightpath: 5 Risks on the Horizon

Aviation’s Future Flightpath: 5 Risks on the Horizon
September 2, 2025 13 mins

Aviation’s Future Flightpath: 5 Risks on the Horizon

The aviation sector is under pressure. Learn about the major risks and the strategies that can secure safer, stronger operations.

Efficiency, safety and innovation are no longer enough in aviation. Leaders must now take decisive action to manage emerging risks and future-proof operations in a sector under intense scrutiny.

Key Takeaways
  1. Artificial intelligence and drones are reshaping aviation, but determining where human oversight remains non-negotiable is essential.
  2. From regulatory flux to legal exposure, aviation organizations must decipher growing complexity to stay compliant and competitive.
  3. Agile, data-led decision making is the new flight plan for navigating global volatility.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction

  2. Taking Control of AI's Potential

  3. The Impending Aviation Talent Crunch

  4. Cyber Threats in Aviation: The Invisible Enemy

  5. The Drone Air Mobility Revolution

  6. The Shifting Legal Landscape of Social Inflation and Juries

  7. Charting a Safe Path Forward: 5 Steps for Aviation Organizations

Aviation is undergoing industry-shifting change. At Aon’s 2025 Aviation Symposium, experts revealed five key trends on the horizon that must be tackled effectively to future-proof organizations. Here, we break down the most pressing risks organizations should prioritize — not just to protect operations, but to generate long-term value in an environment where resilience and agility are commercial imperatives: 

Quote icon

Aviation insurance is more than a necessity — it’s a critical enabler of flight. Risk transfer promotes innovation, growth and global connectivity while casting a safety net for one of the most complex and high-stakes industries in the world.

Neil Maynard
Chief Broking Officer, Aviation

Trend #1: Taking Control of AI's Potential 

Artificial intelligence (AI) is no longer just an efficiency tool — it is rapidly redefining value creation in aviation. AI standards for critical systems are being established, paving the way for an expanded role in larger aircraft and other diverse functions. Behind the scenes, AI is transforming air traffic management, safety protocols and resource allocation — enabling the industry to adapt dynamically to weather, demand and security events. 

The promise: Beyond cost and time savings from AI-driven automation, aviation leaders can expect to see improved fleet utilization, aircraft maintenance, predictive diagnostics and real-time monitoring. Generative AI can unlock scenario modeling for “what if” operational risk, while predictive analytics is pre-empting failures before they hit operations. 

The risk: As AI systems adopt more critical responsibility, claims will become more complex, especially when failures intersect with composite materials and high-value aircraft components. The question isn’t just what AI can do, but how far human oversight must extend to keep operations safe, accountable and insurable. 

AI's Potential in Aviation 

AI may have already revolutionized aspects of ground handling, but aviation’s ecosystem remains fragmented. No two airports operate alike and disparate systems slow down industry-wide progress. That leaves significant room for innovation, especially in powering uncrewed aircraft systems where the technology is ready, but public trust and regulatory frameworks lag. 

AI in aviation can unleash even more exciting possibilities, such as: 

  • Advanced 3D scanning and printing technologies in manufacturing 
  • Autonomous boarding bridges  
  • AI-powered baggage handling facilities 
Barriers to AI's Ascent 

As AI evolves, so do the rules. The European Union Artificial Intelligence Act (EU AI Act), for example, introduces new compliance hurdles for companies leveraging the technology, including those in aviation.   

Litigation is also on the rise, with cases involving AI “hallucinations” and misinformation exposing the industry to reputational and financial fallout. Airlines cannot escape liability for their AI system errors — they remain accountable for the technology's interactions with customers.

$23B

The aviation AI market is forecast to reach $23 billion by 2031, positioning it as one of the largest markets for the technology.

Source: Straits Research

Trend #2: The Impending Aviation Talent Crunch 

The aviation workforce is in the midst of major change. While demand for pilots, engineers and ground staff has been an ongoing issue post-COVID-19, the looming labor shortage, skills gap and evolving regulations are now forcing organizations to take action. 

By 2041, the aviation industry will need up to 585,000 new pilots, according to current projections — a target many fear is out of reach. The cracks are already showing. Ground handling, maintenance and engineering are seeing high turnover. In the U.S. alone, the deficit of aviation mechanics stands at 24,000 and is projected to widen.1

The Battle to Find — and Keep — Key Talent 

Aviation is not just competing with itself for talent. Adjacent industries — engineering, defense and manufacturing — are actively recruiting from the same pool.  

While gender diversity initiatives are gaining traction (women now make up 41% of the global aviation workforce), there’s more work to be done. Just 5.1% of pilots, air traffic controllers and maintenance technicians are women.2  

Emerging roles in data engineering and aviation technology rely on new skills like Java, data analytics and data visualization. Upskilling isn’t optional, it’s essential. 

Inbound Pressures on Workforce Management

Regulation is set to tighten further. Workforce-related rules predicted to make their mark include:

  • CBTA and Enhanced Training: Driving up training costs, extending qualification times and increasing demand for skilled instructors
  • The EU Pay Transparency Directive: Requiring disclosure of gender pay gaps and executive-to-employee compensation ratios 
  • Extended Pilot Age Limits: Particularly in Helicopter Emergency Medical Services, enabling retention of older pilots, but requiring increased health management

Trend #3: Cyber Threats in Aviation: The Invisible Enemy 

As aviation becomes more digitally connected, it also becomes more exposed. Aviation-specific vulnerabilities (including flight planning, ground-to-air communications and passenger data) are now well understood among cyber adversaries. Recent events like the CrowdStrike outage, which grounded more than 10,000 flights and affected at least 1.4 million passengers,3 continue to highlight the fragility of legacy systems and the scale of disruption cyber events can cause. 

When systems fail, the consequences are immediate and often have global visibility. The risk of large-scale media pickup when there are emotive consumer issues at stake is high, amplifying reputational damage and financial fallout, and eroding public trust.  

Quote icon

Aviation’s dependence on real-time, safety-critical and globally connected systems means that cyber incidents can rapidly escalate. When aviation gets hit, the ripple effect is global. Cyber resilience isn’t just IT — it’s operational continuity and brand survival.

Luiza Meziat
Cyber Engagement Leader, United Kingdom
Aviation Cyber Security: Preparing for Tomorrow 

State-sponsored actors and highly organized crime syndicates are targeting aviation for reasons beyond ransom, making threat profiling more complex and detection harder. Airlines face an estimated €1 billion in annual losses from fraudulent websites alone — not to mention the added threats of data theft, intellectual property loss and phishing.4 

Yet insurance coverage hasn’t kept pace. While cyber claims are rising, many policies still focus on material damage and traditional liability, leaving gaps around intangible assets and non-damage related business interruption. Aviation leaders are now more prudent with their cyber security investments, but they still need clearer strategies to address exposures when adopting or abandoning technology. 

In response, the International Air Transport Association is pushing for greater transparency and working to deliver a strategy map for the industry’s response to cyber challenges.5

Threat Actors Targeting Aviation | July 2024 – June 2025 

Threat Actor Description Most Prevalent Threat Actor Number of Breach Events 
Ransomware group BlackSuit 4
Spanish-speaking threat actor Gatito_FBI_NZ 2
Data broker sentap 2
Hacktivist group Handala Hack 1
Hacktivist group Hooshyaran-e Vatan  1

Source: Aon’s Threat Intelligence team 

53

The deep and dark web listed 53 references of successful cyber breaches targeting aviation entities between July 2024 and June 2025.

Source: Aon’s Threat Intelligence team

Trend #4: The Drone Air Mobility Revolution 

Drone use in the aviation industry is gaining momentum, but barriers persist. The rapid expansion of commercial and recreational drone use is outpacing regulatory and insurance frameworks, exposing gaps that need urgent attention. Innovation is pressing ahead in the meantime, with technology like air taxis and autonomous cargo delivery introducing new risks that lack historical precedent. 

1.8M

There are now 1.8 million registered drone operators across the EU Aviation Safety Agency member states.

Source: EASA

The Sky is the Limit: The Potential of Drones 

Drones are redefining logistics. By transferring cargo from large aircraft directly to distribution centers, they promote swifter, leaner supply chains. 

In cities, electric vertical take-off and landing could reduce road traffic congestion, carbon emissions and operational costs compared to traditional fuel-based systems.  

Regulatory and Insurance Hurdles Remain 

Current drone regulations offer a baseline: minimum safety standards, digital tools for risk assessment and frameworks for increasingly complex drone operations like beyond visual line of sight missions. The challenge is developing standards that can keep pace with the rapidly evolving technology. 

+420K

As of April 2025, 420,825 commercial drones were registered by the Federal Aviation Administration in the U.S.

Source: FAA

Top 3 Drone Risks

Trend #5: The Shifting Legal Landscape of Social Inflation and Juries

Growing public distrust of corporations is reshaping risk strategies across the aviation sector. While social inflation originated in the U.S. due to the region’s manufacturing dominance, the issue now has global ramifications. Contributing factors include: 

  1. High-profile corporate scandals eroding public confidence in corporations and their safety practices 
  2. Social media amplifying corporate misconduct and negative perceptions 
  3. Increased skepticism, with jurors now more likely to side against corporate defendants6   

The result has been a surge in nuclear verdicts. In 2023, the record-breaking pace of mega jury awards continued,7 including a $353 million initial award to an airline worker paralyzed in a fueling accident that was subsequently reduced on appeal.8

The Shifting Legal Arena 

Plaintiffs’ attorneys are adopting new legal approaches that concern corporations and influence social inflation trends: 

  • Plaintiffs seek jurisdictional hooks to bring cases into the more attractive U.S. courts, often targeting manufacturers or component suppliers like seat belt manufacturers to circumvent international conventions.  
  • Courts are becoming more lenient about personal jurisdiction, letting cases proceed even when an airline has minimal ties to a specific state.  
  • Each U.S. state has its own unique approach to damages, complicating exposure modeling across jurisdictions. 

This isn’t just a U.S. issue. Social inflation persists in long-tail portfolios in the Pacific market, where insurers have seen increased latency, frequency and severity of claims impacting their results. Meanwhile, European countries, which have typically avoided adverse litigation activity, are now also seeing a troubling increase in class actions.9 International plaintiff firms are also becoming more aggressive and less willing to settle, with cases dragging on longer than traditional U.S. litigation. 

Reduced scrutiny in jury selection, faster jury selection processes in certain U.S. jurisdictions and limited instructions on damages are fueling larger awards. Together, these factors create a landscape where aviation companies face greater financial and reputational risks.  

The Next Era of Aviation Litigation 

If left unchecked, nuclear verdicts will lead to escalating insurance costs, increased financial strain on insurers and discourage businesses from taking necessary risks.  

Some U.S. states are taking action to curb nuclear verdicts: 

  • The Ohio Legislature prohibits a jury from considering evidence of wrongdoing, misconduct, guilt or other evidence offered for the purpose of punishing a defendant when determining noneconomic damages. 
  • Seven states have passed laws to combat misleading lawsuit ads that paint a distorted picture of the civil justice system and what constitutes fair compensation. 
  • Venue reform aims to ensure juries have more connection to the case at hand.10

Charting a Safe Path Forward: 5 Steps for Aviation Organizations

 

  1. Pace AI Adoption with Purpose 
    Gradual implementation of AI allows robust governance frameworks to evolve in tandem, giving leaders time to define where human oversight in aviation systems will remain non-negotiable.
  2. Cultivate Tomorrow’s Workforce
    Invest in skills development programs to equip today’s talent with tomorrow’s tools — from data and analytics to automation. Use analytical tools to understand and predict workforce trends, anticipate disruption and build resilience in the talent pipeline. 
  3. Build Cyber Risk Defenses
    Manage the full cyber risk lifecycle to develop long-term cyber resilience that adapts to new threats. Robust cyber insurance coverage helps organizations mitigate and transfer their remaining cyber risk and recover quickly from attacks. 
  4. Implement Standards that Help Drones Take Flight 
    Certification and training must go beyond basic flight skills and incorporate advanced technical knowledge, risk management, regulatory compliance and operational best practices.
  5. Deploy Effective Legal and Claims Mitigation Strategies
    Develop jurisdictional defense strategies that reflect evolving standards and regional nuances. Demonstrating a systemic safety culture — reinforced and supported by senior management — is key to mitigating reputational and financial fallout. 

The risk landscape in aviation is evolving, and will continue to develop this year and into 2026. Next year’s Aviation Symposium will once again spotlight the issues shaping the industry, from emerging technologies to regulatory shifts and litigation risk. 

Whether you're planning to attend or simply want to stay ahead of the curve, Aon’s aviation team can help. We work with organizations to make better decisions around risk mitigation, retention and transfer — ensuring continuity through post-loss consulting and strategic insurance placement. 

To learn more about attending next year’s event or how Aon can support your organization, please get in touch with our team. 

Aon’s Thought Leaders
  • Felicia Backhouse
    Direction, Aviation, United Kingdom
  • Felicita Fiala
    Global Head of Strategy and Execution, Transportation and Logistics
  • Neil Maynard
    Chief Broking Officer, Aviation
  • Luiza Meziat
    Cyber Engagement Leader, United Kingdom
  • Jennifer Russell
    Managing Director, Deputy Head of Claims, Aviation
  • Rob Sage
    Executive Director, Aviation, United Kingdom

1 Addressing the Skills Shortage and Workforce Trends in Aviation for 2025, Aerviva
2 Gender in Aviation: Celebrating progress while looking to the future, IATA
3 CrowdStrike update grounds thousands of flights, Oxford Economics
4 Aviation is facing a rising wave of cyber-attacks in the wake of COVID, Stephenson Harwood
5 Aviation Cybersecurity, IATA
6 Today’s jurors are not OK (and probably don’t like you), Reuters
7 Nuclear Verdicts: An Update on Trends, Causes and Solutions, U.S. Chamber of Commerce Institute for Legal Reform
8 Introduction to Litigation in the United States, Condon & Forsyth
9 CMS European Class Action Report 2024, CMS
10 Nuclear Verdicts: An Update on Trends, Causes and Solutions, U.S. Chamber of Commerce Institute of Legal Reform

General Disclaimer

This document is not intended to address any specific situation or to provide legal, regulatory, financial, or other advice. While care has been taken in the production of this document, Aon does not warrant, represent or guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness or fitness for any purpose of the document or any part of it and can accept no liability for any loss incurred in any way by any person who may rely on it. Any recipient shall be responsible for the use to which it puts this document. This document has been compiled using information available to us up to its date of publication and is subject to any qualifications made in the document.

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