Early forecasts for the 2025 Atlantic Basin hurricane season predict slightly above-average activity. However, with
ENSO-neutral conditions expected in the North Atlantic, water temperatures will play a key role in how the season
develops.
- Colorado State University is forecasting 17 named storms, four of which could become major
hurricanes.1
- Tropical Storm Risk is anticipating activity close to its 30-year climate norm, with 14 named tropical storms,
seven of which may form as hurricanes.2
Current ENSO-neutral conditions are predicted to persist through the summer, however, there is a chance that weak La
Niña conditions will develop later in the hurricane season. This is causing some uncertainty regarding the season's
development, compounded by additional influencing factors.
Water temperatures are cooler than a year ago but are still warmer than normal. If La Niña conditions emerge, they
could deliver a more conducive environment for hurricane formation. However, dust blowing west from the Sahara could
reduce water surface temperatures and bring in drier air, potentially limiting hurricane formation.
“There is additional uncertainty this year in how the ENSO phase will play out,” says Dan Hartung, global head of
Event Response for Aon Reinsurance Solutions. “There is more spread in the forecast models today than there was last
year early in the season as to how active the season may play out. Other factors that influence activity are also
difficult to predict. We saw this last year with the Saharan air layer, which suppressed storm formation in the
latter half of July and first half of August.”