~3%
The aviation and shipping industries account for 2.5% and 3% of global CO2 emissions respectively.
Sources: International Energy Agency, European Federation for Transport and Environment
The race to net zero is on — and sustainable fuel has a critical role to play. With emission targets tightening, aviation and marine organizations are under pressure to reduce fossil fuel reliance, comply with evolving regulations and deliver on ambitious sustainability goals.
The sustainable fuel market has significant potential. Yet the technology and infrastructure required to scale cleaner fuel is in early development and vulnerable to fluctuations in government support. For producers and innovators, securing investment amid regulatory uncertainty is a persistent challenge.
Overcoming these barriers will require coordinated action across the sustainable fuel lifecycle. Insurance and risk solutions are key in this transition. By de-risking investment, protecting against volatility and enabling confidence in long-term planning, they can help unlock the capital and collaboration needed to move forward.
To explore how these challenges play out in practice and what’s needed to overcome them, Aon spoke with two leaders at the forefront of sustainable fuel innovation: Kwame Bekoe, CEO of AfriSAF, and Jimmy Samartzis, CEO of LanzaJet. Their insights offer a real-world view into the barriers facing producers and the opportunities that lie ahead.
The aviation and shipping industries account for 2.5% and 3% of global CO2 emissions respectively.
Sources: International Energy Agency, European Federation for Transport and Environment
The foundation of sustainable fuel’s success lies upstream in the sourcing of feedstock, where risks and opportunities are tightly interwoven. Feedstock refers to the raw biological materials, such as agricultural waste, used cooking oil or energy crops, that are converted into sustainable fuel.
Land use disputes, volatility in feedstock prices and fragmentation in the feedstock supply chain are just some of the challenges facing this industry. Yet innovators like Kwame Bekoe, CEO of AfriSAF, have a keen sense of its potential. His company connects feedstock owners in Africa and buyers via a digital marketplace, reducing agricultural waste, generating new income streams for local farmers and supplying the key ingredient for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
AfriSAF’s ambitions extend beyond aggregation. Plans are underway to build production facilities and export sustainable fuels to global markets. Buy-in from investors and insurers will be essential for these plans to become reality.
One of the biggest problems has been insufficient data. “The smallhold farmers we work with are unbanked and operate in an informal sector,” explains Bekoe. “By integrating these farmers into the formal sector and leveraging satellite, drone and AI-driven data, we can help de-risk agricultural operations and reduce insurance premiums.”
Backed by data, solutions like crop insurance and parametric cover can help stabilize income for smallholders, unlock capital and strengthen resilience across the feedstock supply chain — supporting a more investable and scalable starting point for sustainable fuel.
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The value of sustainable fuel is clear: It delivers cleaner combustion and higher energy density than its fossil equivalent. Its benefits extend beyond marine and aviation as organizations across sectors purchase the Scope 3 reductions as part of their own offsetting measures.
However, the price differential between conventional and sustainable fuel in marine1 and aviation2 can be significant. Subsidies, compliance costs, carbon pricing and private sector investment all play a role, but stakeholders face risk in terms of future revenue certainty and asset depreciation.
Scaling to the level required comes at a cost. “Capital is needed at every stage of development to support sustainable fuel infrastructure,” says Jimmy Samartzis, CEO of LanzaJet, a company that successfully pioneers alcohol-to-jet technology, transforming ethanol into SAF and renewable diesel.
While eight different technology platforms are certified for SAF production, many remain commercially immature. The steady flow of capital needed to advance these technologies is often inconsistent.
Funds like Breakthrough Energy have provided a blueprint for how risk-tolerant capital can accelerate clean energy innovation. But more investment channels must open.
“Some stakeholders will want projects to be fully de-risked before they deploy their capital, but in a new industry, you need investors that are willing to take more of a risk,” explains Samartzis. “We haven’t seen that balance yet, which is why companies like ours have taken on strategic investors who have a longer-term view and other motives for being in the industry.”
By providing coverage for first-of-its-kind technologies and helping to stabilize risk profiles, insurers can enable early-stage investment and support commercialization. “There’s a real opportunity for the insurance industry to better understand what we’re building and to see the long-term upside,” Samartzis adds.
Policy frameworks governing emissions, fuel standards and reporting are evolving across regions.
Government mandates and incentive schemes can be effective in encouraging adoption. In its early stages, LanzaJet partnered with the U.S. Department of Energy to receive funding that helped progress its technology. Today, the Ghana-based AfriSAF benefits from government policies designed to increase biofuel use.
Delays, inconsistencies and policy changes can, however, hamper planning — particularly for multinational operators spanning multiple jurisdictions. Weak enforcement mechanisms can undermine investor confidence in expected long-term returns.
For example, at the global level, the International Civil Aviation Organization has set a 5% reduction target for CO2 emissions by 2030,3 while the International Maritime Organization is aiming for net-zero emissions by or around 2050.4 However, regional policy remains fragmented and fragile. Incentives introduced by one administration can be rolled back by the next.
To counter this, governments must design frameworks that are not only ambitious, but also durable. They should:
Insurance can be pivotal in reinforcing confidence. By offering protection against policy-related disruptions or delays, insurers can help stabilize investment conditions and support the long-term development of sustainable fuel infrastructure. As the industry matures, insurance solutions that address regulatory uncertainty will be essential to maintaining momentum.
Capability Overview
Legacy fuel infrastructure maintains the status quo and is not built to accommodate new, sustainable fuels. Retrofitting ships, ensuring compatibility of alternative fuels with aircraft systems, updating supply chains and building distribution networks will all require significant capital and coordination.
As sustainable fuel growth unfolds unevenly across regions, key stakeholders must focus on scalable strategies that reinforce momentum and reduce fragmentation. The following stakeholder priorities reflect where positive developments are already underway and where targeted action can help amplify their impact.
The diversity in sustainable fuel sources and national standards in production makes it difficult to ensure consistent access to a specific cleaner fuel across borders.
A global certification body could monitor the quality of sustainable fuels and help organizations navigate regional production standards to ensure transparency and establish trust. While several schemes already exist, they vary in scope, criteria and measurement methods, limiting effectiveness.
Operational innovation is already happening, from airports reducing fuel burn during taxiing to ports implementing ship-to-shore power standards. But these efforts remain siloed. Scaling impact will require cross-sector coordination and shared benchmarks.
Charterers in particular hold significant influence. “Setting environmental requirements and a willingness to pay more for greener vessels will create a market-driven mechanism for sustainable transformation,” says Einar Samset, Head of Marine Hull, Aon Norway AS.
New technology and renewable fuels are often labeled as untested by insurers, leading to higher premiums and slower adoption. While historical loss data may eventually reduce pricing, this cautious approach risks hindering advancement in the green transition.
Working toward universal sustainability will require collaboration among key industry stakeholders, including those producing and buying sustainable fuel. Governmental bodies and investors supporting the progress of the burgeoning industry will also be crucial.
Risk managers and insurance buyers need a new playbook — one that integrates risk insights into commercial and sustainability strategies from the outset. Insurance can be a key enabler throughout the sustainable fuel lifecycle. From crop insurance that supports upstream resilience, to risk transfer solutions that help fuel producers secure funding and coverage that empowers transport operators to adopt new technologies — the right insurance strategy can accelerate progress at every stage. Early engagement with expert insurance and risk advisors can tangibly improve project feasibility, stakeholder alignment and long-term value, turning today’s uncertainty into tomorrow’s competitive edge.
Whether you're producing fuel, investing in infrastructure or navigating operational change, Aon can help you manage risk with confidence and unlock opportunity in your energy transition. Let’s talk about how we can support your journey toward a low-carbon future.
We’d like to thank Kwame Bekoe, CEO of AfriSAF, and Jimmy Samartzis, CEO of LanzaJet, for their additional insights.
1 Sustainable shipping fuels can reach cost parity with fossil fuels by 2035 with decisive policy, Wärtsilä
2 Unraveling Willingness to Pay for Sustainable Aviation Fuel, RMI
3 Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), ICAO
4 IMO approves net-zero regulations for global shipping, IMO
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