Insights on a Volatile World — Risk Factors That Businesses Need to be Monitoring

Insights on a Volatile World — Risk Factors That Businesses Need to be Monitoring
Aon Insights Series UK

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This insight is part 13 of 13 in this Collection.

July 9, 2025 5 mins

Insights on a Volatile World — Risk Factors That Businesses Need to be Monitoring

Companies that operate around the world need to have a global appreciation of the heightening geopolitical risk

The 70-plus elections that were held across the globe last year have set the stage for the new geopolitical order of 2025, most notably the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States.

Tariffs

The new U.S. administration’s agenda will define 2025, in particular the use of tariffs. From an economic perspective, this is evident in the $10 trillion1 wiped from global stock markets following the President’s implementation at the beginning of April of a minimum of 10 percent tariffs on all U.S. imports. Given global stock markets act as a barometer of volatility, and despite their subsequent rebound, uncertainty hangs over the economy and the effects the tariffs will have.

Asia Pacific

In addition to economic implications, tariffs will play a key role in shaping U.S. diplomatic relations over the course of 2025, most importantly with China, which at one time faced 125 percent tariffs from the U.S. Meanwhile, Chinese military drills in the Taiwan Strait are further complicating U.S.-China relations. One important consequence of the U.S. tariffs could be a a strengthening of relations between South-East Asian nations and China.

Quote icon

Volatility doesn’t have to be from month to month or week to week it can be in the last 20 minutes.

Emily Maitlis
Host “The News Agents”
Russia

The conflict in Ukraine and wider NATO-Russia relations will continue to be a central theme in 2025 with hostilities showing no firm sign of slowing down. NATO-Russia relations have had a wider effect on global politics, triggering a renewed commitment to defence spending by European nations and heightened security concerns over the Arctic Circle. U.S. policy remains to be defined but the effects of any action could be significant and far-reaching.

Middle East

Stability in the Middle East remains fragile in 2025 and a focal point of international diplomacy. Despite a 42-day ceasefire in early 2025, the conflict in Gaza has resumed both in the form of airstrikes and ground warfare. On a regional and global level, the damage inflicted to Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon seems to have diminished Iran’s power, although their nuclear capabilities continue to grow. The decrease in the oil and gas price derived from economic uncertainty was set to influence the region, even before the economic fallout from the tariffs. This could, for example, affect Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 ambitions.

Conclusion

The impact of geopolitics on businesses in 2025 is difficult to predict and constantly evolving. Precautionary measures to manage risk remain more important than ever.

1 10 days and a $10 trillion market swing: How Trump’s tariffs changed the global economy, and what comes next — Yahoo Finance

This article is current as of May 2025.

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