Impact Forecasting

Impact Forecasting

In an increasingly risky world, insurers and reinsurers need more sophisticated tools to quantify and manage the risks facing their businesses. Aon’s catastrophe model developers, Impact Forecasting, enable firms to analyse the financial implications of catastrophic events and achieve a greater understanding of their risks.

Breadth of Model Coverage
With over 100 probabilistic and scenario models spanning 10 perils and almost 80 territories, we empower insurers by providing risk insights for the peak risk zones around the globe, as well as for the emerging markets. Impact Forecasting partners with academic and industry organisations around the world to incorporate the latest research into all of our catastrophe models.

View the map and index of Impact Forecasting's global models:Impact Forecasting's global Models

Customisable models
All Impact Forecasting models can be customised based on the client’s requirements, for example, using an insurer’s loss data to generate more accurate results for a specific line of business or developing an entire new model for a previously unchartered peril and territory. Recent examples include using our engineering expertise and the client’s claims data for greenhouses to create bespoke damage functions; and developing an advanced Computational Fluid Dynamic model to quantify property damage and workers’ compensation risk for Manhattan, New York.

Transparent ELEMENTS loss calculation platform
Our models run in ELEMENTS, which gives insurers the ability to incorporate their own view of risk into model results. It delivers transparency so every step of the calculation process is clearly defined and can be easily explained to stakeholders, regulators and rating agencies while helping to quantify uncertainty in various model components. As a universal catastrophe modelling platform, ELEMENTS has the ability to run both Impact Forecasting models and third party models for any peril or territory. Plus, ELEMENTS’ Application Programming Interface (API) ensures smooth integration with your catastrophe modelling processes.

Risk rating information to enhance primary underwriting
Impact Forecasting’s set of hazard and risk score products enables more accurate underwriting and risk assessment for natural and man-made hazards. The data helps insurers and corporations understand the impact of catastrophe risk on individual locations and estimate how much premium to charge. Our data are integrated with a number of third party exposure management and policy administration systems.

Automated Event Response for US hurricane and European windstorm
Today’s weather prediction models offer an opportunity for insurers to estimate the impact of costly hurricanes and windstorms in real time. Utilising weather forecast and station data, Impact Forecasting’s Automated Event Response brings together its expertise in hurricane and windstorm modelling with a portfolio-specific approach to loss estimation to enhance claims response and reporting.

Catastrophe Analysis and Reporting
Impact Forecasting provides real-time information on catastrophic events through Cat Alerts, Weekly and Monthly Cat Recaps and the Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report. The Catastrophe Insight portal provides aggregated economic and insured loss data for global natural catastrophe events during the current year plus the previous decade. Users can compare losses by peril or region.


Aon UK Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FPA #12874

Impact Forecasting Support

Receive Cat Alerts